Allegedly, America is planning to send NASA astronauts back to the moon sometime in early 2028 as part of its historic Artemis 4 mission. But for now, critical details like what kind of spacecraft these explorers might carry and what lunar lander will actually deliver them down to the moon’s south pole remain just a little vague.
The situation behind the scenes now sounds like it’s changing from just concerning to almost farcical, judging from comments made last Thursday by former NASA astronaut Charlie Precourt, a member of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP). Speaking at ASAP’s quarterly meeting, Precourt discussed some of the unresolved variables with the so-called Human Landing System (HLS) vehicles now being developed by NASA’s competing private contractors, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
To return, the latter of these two mega-billionaire-led projects, SpaceX’s Starship HLS, requires an untested orbital tank depot where cryogenically stored propellant for the lander is stored, but not before that depot itself is filled due to the tendency of this volatile fuel to escape into space. According to Precourt, the current calculations for just how many SpaceX flights are needed to keep this low-Earth-orbit (LEO) fuel depot completed for Artemis 4 are — well, it sounds incredibly high.
“We have to keep our eye on a lot of required fuel for the lander,” Precourt said, according to Ars Technica. “I think the latest estimate is about 22 flights.”
Fuel for debate
SpaceX founder, sometime trillionaire, and full-time poster Elon Musk pushed back on Precourt’s statements about that estimate almost immediately after Ars Technica senior space editor Eric Berger started posting about it on Musk-owned social media site X.
“That’s way too high,” Musk tweeted under Berger’s post. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”
Reasonable adults can discern who to believe here. On the one hand, you have a retired NASA astronaut who speaks three languages and successfully flew four space shuttle missions, including the first to dock with the Russian space station Mir in 1995. Precourt had a long second career in space safety and experimental aviation, and his role at NASA ASAP focused on human safety issues and exposure. Then, on the other hand, you have a serial entrepreneur who repeatedly offered inaccurate predictions about how his EV company Tesla would have self-driving cars and legally insisted on becoming a “co-founder” of that company when he (actually) wasn’t.
Whatever one makes of Musk’s history of misunderstandings—be it wish-casting or outright falsehoods—Precourt’s figure of 22 Starship flights is only slightly higher than the US space agency’s previously known estimates. As former NASA Administrator Michael Griffin told the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology last year, the “required number” of tanker flights “has been variously estimated at 10-20 for SpaceX.”
Patience goes
Although the current administrator of NASA Jared Isaacman revealed little doubt about the current schedule for America’s first crewed missions to the moon since 1972, NASA ASAP said it plans to formally recommend that the US agency reexamine its plans for Artemis 4. and future lunar missions, according to an account of the meeting by Space Policy Online.
“NASA should develop a detailed plan for testing and data collection, incorporating both ground and flight testing to ensure that all risks are thoroughly identified and mitigated,” Precourt said. “This structured approach will provide a more balanced sequence of flight tests, ultimately supporting a successful manned lunar landing and the creation of a sustainable lunar base.”